Egypt’s core inflation rate increased slightly to 2.7% year-on-year in October from 2.6% in September, but remained well below levels seen in previous months, the central bank said on Monday.
The figures came two days after the official statistics agency said headline inflation had fallen to 3.1% in October from 4.8% in September, its lowest rate since December 2005, according to Refinitiv data.
The drop heightened expectations that the central bank will cut interest rates when it meets on Thursday.
Month-on-month headline inflation rose to 1% from -0.03% in October, driven partly by higher education prices and an increase in household renovations.
Core inflation strips out volatile items such as food.
The sharp drop in year-on-year headline inflation largely reflected the high comparative inflation rate in 2018, Naeem Brokerage said in a research note on Monday.
The new headline rate widened Egypt’s real interest rate to around 10%, “the highest among most emerging economies and adding more room for monetary easing”, Naeem said.
In September, the central bank cut its key interest rates for the second month in a row.
Egypt is coming out of a three-year IMF-backed reform programme that saw inflation climb to highs of more than 33% in mid-2017.
Analysts say they expect inflation to rise again before the end of the year because of the base-year effect.